Stat 341
Computational Bayesian Statistics
Spring 2021

[RStudio] [calendar] [test info] [resources] [from class] [homework]

Dope Sheets

dope1

Here’s where you can come to find out what’s up each day.

Week 1

Wed 2/3

  • Welcome to Math 341!

  • Topic of the Day: Overview of Bayesian Inference

Fri 2/5

Week 2

Mon 2/8

Wed 2/10

  • Topics of the Day

    • More Grid Approximation

      • working on the log-scale (how and why)
      • models with multiple parameters

    • Writing functions in R

    • Document we coded live in class: [HTML]

Fri 2/12

  • Topics of the Day: Posterior Sampling and Quadratic Approximation

  • PS due today and next Wednesday

Week 3

Mon 2/15

  • Announcements

    • Need to pick a day for Test 1. Use this form to let me know about dates when you would prefer not to have a test.

    • Next problem set due Wednesday

    • Office hours: Fill out doodle poll ASAP

  • Topic of the Day: Analytic Methods and Conjugate Priors

Wed 2/17

  • Test 1 on Wednesday, March 3 or Monday, March 8

  • Topics of the Day

    • Designing models
    • Fitting models with quap()
    • Prior and posterior sampling

  • Notes

Fri 2/19

  • Topic of the Day: Posterior sampling for average and individual responses.

Week 4

Mon, 2/22

  • PSAs
    • Fill out survey 2 if you have not done so.
      • I’ll announce the test date tomorrow after looking at the survey results.
      • Piazza? Moodle forum? etc.?
    • Dope sheet is usually updated by 11:30 each day.
    • Tentative office hour plan: Monday evening and Wednesday after class.
      • Starting tonight at 8pm
      • Office hours questions can be posted in this Google Doc if you can’t make it to office hours.
    • Homework notes have been posted for PS 2.
  • Topic of the day: Polynomial Regression

Wed, 2/24

  • Topic of the day: Regression with B-splines

Fri, 2/26

  • Topic of the day: Putting it altogether – a model start to finish

Week 5

Mon 3/1

  • Test Next Monday

    • Info sheet has been posted.

  • Topic of the day: Multiple Predictors (spurious association)

Wed 3/3

  • Office Hours today after class

  • Topic of the day: Multiple Predictors (categorical variables and masking)

Fri 3/5

  • Topic of the Day: Some odds and ends

Week 6

Mon 3/8

  • Test 1

Wed 3/10

  • Groups

    • Group 1: Adam DenHaan, Adam Ritsema, Samuel Zeleke, Yue He
    • Group 2: Advait Scaria, Ashlyn DeGroot, Bryan Hall, Tomoki Takeuchi
    • Group 3: Chen Wang, Luca Seazzu, Tyler Poel, Zachary Chin
    • Group 4: Evan Woodke, Mattheus Colyn, Rebekah Cross, Yena Kim
    • Group 5: Heon Soo Park, Joseph Jinn, Sadie Kornoelje, Samantha Driesenga
    • Group 6: Benjamin Steves, Enoch Mwesigwa, Lauren Steffen, Yejae Kim
    • Group 7: Cliff Anderson, Jonathan Ellis, Liang Zhang, Moriah Smith
    • Group 8: Bryant George, Nathan Minderhoud, Nicholas Beery

  • Topic of the Day: King Markov and his advisor Metropolis

Fri 3/12

  • Dordt has challenged Calvin to an NCAA modeling competition. See email for details.

    • Here is an excel spreadsheet with some data you can use.

    • Note: this year teams played a variable number of games due to COVID, so this year’s data will look a bit different compared the previous years.

  • Topic of the Day: King Markov and his advisor Metropolis

Week 7

Mon 3/15

Wed 3/17

Fri 3/19

  • Meet in SB 010

  • We need to pick a day for Test 2. Use this form to let me know about dates when you would prefer not to have a test.

  • Topics of the Day

    • Multicollinearity
    • Fitting models with Stan in R (via ulam())
    • Notes

Week 8

Mon 3/22

  • Topics of the Day: Post-Treatment Bias

Wed 3/24

  • Upcoming tests
    • Test 2: 4/12 [alternative: 4/5]
    • Test 3: 5/3
    • Final: 5/11 @ 9am
  • PSAs
    • Online today, in SB 010 on Friday
    • Office hours after class today
  • Topics of the Day: Collider Bias

Fri 3/26

  • Meet in SB 010 today

  • Topic of the Day: Confronting confounding (systematically)

Week 9

Mon 3/29

  • Upcoming tests

    • Test 2: 4/5 (Plan to post review info later today)
    • Test 3: 5/3
    • Final: 5/11 @ 9am

  • Note from last time (DAGs and confounding): You should know how to analyze a DAG “by hand” as well as how to use functions in dagitty (impliedConditionalIndependencies(), adjustmentSets(), paths(), etc.)

  • Topic of the Day: Interaction

Wed 3/31

  • Topic of the Day: More Interaction

Fri 4/2

  • Topic of the Day: \(R^2\) and its deficiencies

Week 10

Mon 4/5

  • Test 2

Wed 4/7

  • Topic of the Day: Estimating predictive accuracy with PSIS and WAIC

Fri 4/9

  • Meet in SB 010

  • Topic of the Day: Comparing Models

Week 11

Mon 4/12

  • Final Countdown: Including today, we have 10 class periods left.

    • From here to the end, we will be expanding our modeling repertoire, primarily in two ways:

      • GLMs (Generalized Linear Models)
      • Hierarchical Models

    • As we do that, we will be practicing and refining all of our previous skills (creating priors, interpreting models, comparing models, diagnosing HMC, etc.)

  • Topic of the day: Dichotomous responses and the GLM framework (Logistic Regression)

Fri 4/16

  • Meet in SB 010

  • Test 2 has been graded.

Topic of the Day: More Logistic Regression

Week 12

Mon 4/19

  • Office Hours tonight @ 8pm

  • Rest of the semester (8 days, including today and Test 3)

    • Hierarchical Models (starting today)
    • More examples (more hierarchical models, more GLMs, measurement error, missing data, etc.)
    • Diagnosing Stan (more issues will arise as our models become more “interesting”)

  • Topic of the Day: Hierarchical Models (a.k.a. partial pooling)

Wed 4/21

Fri 4/23

  • Topics of the Day

    • Reparameterizing a model to help Stan
    • Thinking about link() and sim() and more

  • Notes

Week 13

Mon 4/26

  • \(T = -5\)

  • Office Hours @ 8pm tonight

    • I hope to post another PS (or two?) between now and then

  • Topics of the day:

Wed 4/28

  • Topic of the Day: Modeling Radon in Minnesota
    • Another example of a multilevel model
    • Introduction to brms for fitting models
    • Notes: Radon

Fri 4/30

  • Review day – let me know if you have things we should review

    • Perhaps look over the Preflight Checklist and see if there are things there that need refreshing (or more detail)

Week 14

Mon 5/3

  • Test 3

Wed 5/5

  1. Definitions selected from Webster’s online dictionary↩︎